This information was contributed on 2/7/05 by Charles at ssmarriage@aol.com.

In a recent election the Conservatives won more seats than the Liberals and other parties, and have the right to form a Government. However they are in the minority, having 124 seats in a Parliament of 308. Other parties won the rest: the NDP (socialist), the Bloc Quebecois (representing Quebec French speaking voters) and one independent.

The Conservatives need 31 of the members of parliament from other parties to vote with them to pass any legislation, and that is like expecting half of the Democrats in Congress to vote with the Republicans on any of their controversial bills.

The Conservatives have opposed same sex marriage, and during the election said they would hold a referendum on the subject. They have NOT said that they would repeal the legislation. They will address that if/when/and after they hold a referendum.

POLLS SHOW THAT OVER 60% OF CANADIANS ARE IN FAVOUR OF SAME SEX MARRIAGE. So a referendum will NOT support a repeal.

Mr. Harper, the Conservative leader said that the referendum is a low priority: his main agenda is financial: tax cuts, health care costs etc. just like the Republicans in the US.
A minority government can work only with the help of one or more of the other parties. On tax matters he will have the support of some liberals, and some Bloc members. So he will probably be able to pass that kind of legislation. However, none of the other parties supports a referendum on same sex marriage. If he tries to pass any same sex legislation, he will be defeated. A defeat means he automatically has to resign his government and call another election. He will not risk being defeated so soon in his mandate. If he gains the trust of Canadians he may feel strong enough eventually to risk another election, but he must pass some popular measures first, to gain that trust.

In the long run, if his government survives, he may feel strong enough to address the subject. He has discussed using the “Notwithstanding” clause. That is a weird Canadian rule that says that if a law has been proven to be unconstitutional, the government can still pas it “notwithstanding” the constitution. That would require a vote in parliament which he would lose. All parties are wary of using the “notwithstanding” clause because it would set a precedent: what other rights under the constitution could be over-ridden using that clause?

Mr. Harper chose his cabinet this week and his choices have been centrist conservatives: there is a movement within his party to the center: no strongly right-wing anti-gay person has been given a cabinet post. Indeed he appointed a Liberal to Trade.

Mr. Harper has stated that even if he could change the legislation, all marriages up to that date would still be recognized as legal.

CONCLUSION:
• Same sex marriage legislation is a low priority for the new Government.
• A referendum, if held, would loose as most Canadians do not want a change.
• The “notwithstanding” clause would lose in Parliament and result in a defeat for Mr. Harper.
• All same-sex marriages up to the date of any change will be recognized as valid permanently.
• GET MARRIED NOW: IT WILL ALWAYS BE A VALID CANADIAN MARRIAGE.